The market strongly favors July 15 at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 15 | 99% | +1% | $23K |
| 2 | July 31 | 99% | +1% | $20K |
| 3 | July 12 | 99% | +1% | $24K |
| 4 | August 31 BEST VALUE | 99% | +1% | $13K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwi...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran successfully targets shipping by...? will occur, with $80K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: July 15 is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $54K traded in the last 24 hours alone (68% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 11, 2026 at 23:35 UTC, the leading outcome is July 15 at 99% probability, with $80K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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