Market is split — August 11 at 42%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 11 | 42% | +135% | - |
| 2 | August 17 | 42% | +135% | - |
| 3 | August 6 | 42% | +141% | $40 |
| 4 | August 5 | 41% | +144% | $50 |
| 5 | August 7 | 41% | +144% | - |
| 6 | August 18 | 40% | +147% | - |
| 7 | August 20 | 40% | +153% | - |
| 8 | August 23 | 36% | +182% | $664 |
| 9 | August 9 | 34% | +190% | $803 |
| 10 | August 3 | 32% | +208% | $166 |
| 11 | August 2 | 27% | +270% | $60 |
| 12 | August 27 | 27% | +270% | - |
| 13 | August 29 | 26% | +285% | - |
| 14 | August 25 | 26% | +292% | - |
| 15 | August 15 | 24% | +308% | $3K |
| 16 | August 21 | 24% | +317% | - |
| 17 | August 22 | 24% | +317% | - |
| 18 | August 1 | 22% | +344% | $118 |
| 19 | August 31 | 22% | +365% | $20 |
| 20 | August 14 BEST VALUE | 21% | +376% | $708 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran successfully targets shipping on...? will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with August 11 leading at just 42%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (90% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 31, 2026 at 03:05 UTC, the leading outcome is August 11 at 42% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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