This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 70% | $2K |
| 2 | May 31 | 68% | $6K |
| 3 | April 30 | 40% | $10K |
| 4 | April 15 | 27% | $15K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 31, 2026 at 17:45 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 70% probability, with $281K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $281K, with $30K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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