This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orbán - Hungary PM | 60% | $30K |
| 2 | Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 16% | $21K |
| 3 | Starmer - UK PM | 5% | $561K |
| 4 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | 4% | $1.0M |
| 5 | Trump - USA President | 3% | $216K |
| 6 | Takaichi - Japan PM | 2% | $355K |
| 7 | Putin - Russia President | 2% | $355K |
| 8 | Macron - France President | 1% | $74K |
| 9 | None before 2027 | 1% | $17K |
| 10 | Petro - Colombia President | 1% | $16K |
| 11 | Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 1% | $17K |
| 12 | Abbas - President of Palestine | 1% | $64K |
| 13 | Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 1% | $42K |
| 14 | Lecornu - France PM | 1% | $58K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Orbán - Hungary PM at 60% probability, with $3.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $3.4M, with $30K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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