No clear favorite. John Thune leads at just 38%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Thune | 38% | +160% | $21K |
| 2 | Chuck Schumer | 30% | +233% | $12K |
| 3 | Brian Schatz BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $3K |
| 4 | Tom Cotton | 4% | +2173% | $6K |
| 5 | Mark Kelly | 2% | +4900% | $5K |
| 6 | Steve Daines | 2% | +5028% | $24K |
| 7 | John Barrasso | 2% | +6150% | $4K |
| 8 | Patty Murray | 2% | +6352% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Senate Majority Leader? will occur, with $142K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — John Thune leads at only 38% across 8 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $42K traded in the last 24 hours alone (30% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 12, 2026 at 07:35 UTC, the leading outcome is John Thune at 38% probability, with $142K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $142K, with $42K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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