This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on XXX or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↓ 55% | 100% | - |
| 2 | ↓ 50% | 100% | - |
| 3 | ↓ 60% | 100% | $23K |
| 4 | ↓ 40% | 2% | $266K |
| 5 | ↑ 80% | 1% | $71K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ 55% at 100% probability, with $507K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $507K, with $29K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade