The market strongly favors New People (NL) at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New People (NL) | 100% | +0% | $10K |
| 2 | Other BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Yabloko | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Party B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Party C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Party D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Party E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Party F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Party G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Party H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Party I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Party J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Party K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Party L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Party M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Party N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Party O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Party P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Party Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Party R | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russi...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place will occur, with $31K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: New People (NL) is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (53% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 21, 2026 at 15:15 UTC, the leading outcome is New People (NL) at 100% probability, with $31K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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