No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 30%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 30% | +228% | $50K |
| 2 | November 30 BEST VALUE | 16% | +506% | $49K |
| 3 | November 15 | 2% | +4445% | $59K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will r...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...? will occur, with $158K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 30% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $158K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 11, 2026 at 14:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 30% probability, with $158K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $158K, with $158K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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