September 18 leads at 76%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 18 | 76% | +31% | $215 |
| 2 | September 19 | 62% | +60% | $132 |
| 3 | September 20 | 62% | +60% | $303 |
| 4 | September 23 | 62% | +63% | $525 |
| 5 | September 26 | 52% | +90% | $16K |
| 6 | September 17 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | September 29 | 46% | +120% | $5K |
| 8 | September 21 | 43% | +133% | $2K |
| 9 | September 22 | 38% | +160% | $2K |
| 10 | September 28 | 30% | +239% | $4 |
| 11 | September 27 | 26% | +285% | $67 |
| 12 | September 25 | 24% | +317% | - |
| 13 | September 24 | 22% | +365% | - |
| 14 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 18% | +441% | $187 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and...
This prediction market tracks whether Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? will occur, with $26K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward September 18 at 76%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (82% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 19, 2026 at 16:15 UTC, the leading outcome is September 18 at 76% probability, with $26K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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