The market strongly favors September 18 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 18 | 100% | - | $2K |
| 2 | September 23 | 100% | - | $2K |
| 3 | September 29 | 100% | - | $36K |
| 4 | September 21 | 90% | +11% | $3K |
| 5 | September 28 | 52% | +90% | $26K |
| 6 | September 17 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | September 26 | 30% | +232% | $16K |
| 8 | September 30 | 6% | +1567% | $19K |
| 9 | September 20 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1670% | $43K |
| 10 | September 22 | 4% | +2339% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and...
This prediction market tracks whether Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? will occur, with $234K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: September 18 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $48K traded in the last 24 hours alone (20% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 12, 2026 at 09:45 UTC, the leading outcome is September 18 at 100% probability, with $234K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $234K, with $48K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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