The market strongly favors Hakeem Jeffries at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hakeem Jeffries BEST VALUE | 94% | +6% | $24K |
| 2 | Katherine Clark | 3% | +2930% | $1K |
| 3 | Pete Aguilar | 3% | +3746% | $1K |
| 4 | Jim Jordan | 1% | +8596% | $538 |
| 5 | Steve Scalise | 1% | +8596% | $588 |
| 6 | Mike Johnson | 1% | +14186% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 Unite...
This prediction market tracks whether Speaker of the House after the midterms? will occur, with $28K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Hakeem Jeffries is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (50% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 06, 2026 at 00:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Hakeem Jeffries at 94% probability, with $28K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms