Market is split — June 30 at 54%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $17.6M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 54% | +87% | $539K |
| 2 | May 31 | 24% | +326% | $3.0M |
| 3 | May 22 BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $1.1M |
| 4 | May 15 | 1% | +11665% | $3.0M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-upda...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 54% probability, with $17.6M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $17.6M, with $335K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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