No clear favorite. June 30 leads at just 16%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 16% | +506% | $101K |
| 2 | June 15 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $179K |
| 3 | June 12 | 5% | +2005% | $328K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between...
This prediction market tracks whether Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...? will occur, with $617K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — June 30 leads at only 16% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $575K traded in the last 24 hours alone (93% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 16% probability, with $617K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $617K, with $575K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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