The market strongly favors 1.2–1.5M at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.2–1.5M | 100% | - | $48K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (t...
This prediction market tracks whether Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff will occur, with $169K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: 1.2–1.5M is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-26. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 13, 2026 at 13:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 1.2–1.5M at 100% probability, with $169K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $169K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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