The market strongly favors June 15 at 97%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 15 | 97% | +3% | $10K |
| 2 | June 14 | 97% | +3% | $10K |
| 3 | June 13 BEST VALUE | 95% | +5% | $57K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the United States will sign a written agreement with the Islamic Repu...
This prediction market tracks whether US announces location or date of US x Iran deal signing by...? will occur, with $61K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: June 15 is priced at 97%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $56K traded in the last 24 hours alone (92% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-16. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 13, 2026 at 18:25 UTC, the leading outcome is June 15 at 97% probability, with $61K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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