The market strongly favors October 31, 2026 at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 31, 2026 | 94% | +7% | $20K |
| 2 | November 30 | 26% | +292% | $8K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...
This prediction market tracks whether US imposes new sanctions on China by...? will occur, with $29K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: October 31, 2026 is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (73% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 02, 2026 at 04:55 UTC, the leading outcome is October 31, 2026 at 94% probability, with $29K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms