The market strongly favors US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? | 98% | +2% | $23K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will r...
This prediction market tracks whether US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? will occur, with $23K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (91% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-24. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 24, 2026 at 18:55 UTC, the leading outcome is US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? at 98% probability, with $23K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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