The market strongly favors November 5 at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 5 | 96% | +4% | $5K |
| 2 | November 6 | 91% | +10% | $2K |
| 3 | November 8 | 80% | +24% | $4K |
| 4 | November 15 | 58% | +72% | $7K |
| 5 | November 30 | 38% | +160% | $6K |
| 6 | December 31 BEST VALUE | 26% | +292% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market...
This prediction market tracks whether US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? will occur, with $27K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: November 5 is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $42K traded in the last 24 hours alone (155% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 04, 2026 at 11:35 UTC, the leading outcome is November 5 at 96% probability, with $27K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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