The market strongly favors June 30 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 100% | - | $24K |
| 2 | June 19 | 1% | +7900% | $11K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially suspends, waives, lifts, removes, or materially eases any existing direct OFAC sanctions on Iran between market creation an...
This prediction market tracks whether US lifts Iran OFAC sanctions by...? will occur, with $54K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: June 30 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (37% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 22, 2026 at 17:25 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 100% probability, with $54K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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