No clear favorite. September 30 leads at just 39%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 39% | +156% | - |
| 2 | August 31 | 3% | +2930% | $219K |
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On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanct...
This prediction market tracks whether US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? will occur, with $307K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — September 30 leads at only 39% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $18K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 26, 2026 at 22:15 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 39% probability, with $307K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $307K, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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