No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 28%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 28% | +257% | $49K |
| 2 | November 30 | 22% | +365% | $3K |
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On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanct...
This prediction market tracks whether US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? will occur, with $476K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 28% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $50K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 03, 2026 at 09:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 28% probability, with $476K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $476K, with $50K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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