This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 38% | $788K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 38% probability, with $2.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.8M, with $45K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade