The market strongly favors December 31 at 91%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 91% | +10% | $271K |
| 2 | October 31 | 83% | +20% | $3K |
| 3 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 77% | +30% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and th...
This prediction market tracks whether US x China tariff agreement by December 31? will occur, with $278K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: December 31 is priced at 91%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 23, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 91% probability, with $278K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $278K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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