The market strongly favors April 30 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $280.1M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | April 30 | 100% | - | $17.7M |
| 2 | December 31 | 100% | - | $2.1M |
| 3 | June 30 | 100% | - | $5.0M |
| 4 | May 31 | 100% | - | $7.8M |
| 5 | April 15 | 100% | - | $24.6M |
| 6 | April 7 | 100% | - | $173.7M |
| 7 | May 15 | 100% | - | $420K |
| 8 | April 10 | 100% | - | $867K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Ira...
This prediction market tracks whether US x Iran ceasefire by...? will occur, with $280.1M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: April 30 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $318K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
As of Apr 12, 2026 at 00:30 UTC, the leading outcome is April 30 at 100% probability, with $280.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $280.1M, with $318K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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