This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | March 31 | 8% | $409K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 22:00 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31 at 8% probability, with $409K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $409K, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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