September 30 leads at 71%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 71% | +41% | $3K |
| 2 | September 11 | 46% | +115% | $3K |
| 3 | September 4 | 36% | +174% | $6K |
| 4 | August 28 BEST VALUE | 22% | +355% | $2K |
| 5 | August 21 | 4% | +2464% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Karoline Leavitt between market creation and the specified date at...
This prediction market tracks whether When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward September 30 at 71%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 19, 2026 at 10:15 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 71% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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