No clear favorite. USA leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 36% | +178% | $2K |
| 2 | Turkey | 16% | +510% | $611 |
| 3 | No Meeting by December 31 | 14% | +590% | $2K |
| 4 | Qatar | 12% | +700% | $611 |
| 5 | Switzerland | 8% | +1150% | $571 |
| 6 | Oman BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $568 |
| 7 | Austria | 4% | +2122% | $688 |
| 8 | UAE | 4% | +2369% | $620 |
| 9 | Iraq | 4% | +2464% | $567 |
| 10 | Iran | 4% | +2678% | $579 |
| 11 | Pakistan | 3% | +3179% | $591 |
| 12 | Egypt | 2% | +3900% | $745 |
| 13 | Other - Europe | 2% | +4551% | $531 |
| 14 | Italy | 2% | +4778% | $645 |
| 15 | Saudi Arabia | 2% | +5163% | $631 |
| 16 | Other | 2% | +5163% | $531 |
| 17 | Other - Middle East/North Africa | 2% | +5305% | $556 |
| 18 | Kazakhstan | 1% | +8233% | $403 |
| 19 | Russia | 1% | +12400% | $581 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to contin...
This prediction market tracks whether Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...? will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — USA leads at only 36% across 19 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 23, 2026 at 15:15 UTC, the leading outcome is USA at 36% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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