No clear favorite. Labour + Green leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Labour + Green | 36% | +175% | $4K |
| 2 | National + ACT + NZF | 32% | +208% | $6K |
| 3 | Labour + Green + Maori | 26% | +285% | $5K |
| 4 | Other BEST VALUE | 5% | +1805% | $9K |
| 5 | Labour + Green + NZF | 1% | +7307% | $1K |
| 6 | Labour + Green + Maori + NZF | 1% | +8991% | $2K |
| 7 | National + NZF | 1% | +11011% | $2K |
| 8 | Labour + Maori | 1% | +13233% | $1K |
| 9 | National + NZF + Maori | 1% | +15285% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election...
This prediction market tracks whether Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? will occur, with $42K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Labour + Green leads at only 36% across 9 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (31% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-07. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 14, 2026 at 01:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Labour + Green at 36% probability, with $42K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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