The market strongly favors California at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | 100% | - | $20K |
| 2 | Texas | 100% | - | $24K |
| 3 | North Carolina | 100% | - | $17K |
| 4 | Ohio | 100% | - | $10K |
| 5 | Florida | 100% | - | $9K |
| 6 | Utah | 98% | +2% | $101K |
| 7 | Louisiana | 95% | +5% | $26K |
| 8 | Alabama BEST VALUE | 24% | +308% | $21K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, a...
This prediction market tracks whether Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms? will occur, with $474K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: California is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $13K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 05, 2026 at 07:45 UTC, the leading outcome is California at 100% probability, with $474K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $474K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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