The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Swalwell | 64% | $11K |
| 2 | Steve Hilton | 56% | $31K |
| 3 | Chad Bianco | 36% | - |
| 4 | Tom Steyer | 30% | $18K |
| 5 | Elaine Culotti | 18% | - |
| 6 | Katie Porter | 16% | - |
| 7 | Matt Mahan | 14% | $10K |
| 8 | Javen Allen | 10% | - |
| 9 | Xavier Becerra | 7% | $3K |
| 10 | Tony Thurmond | 6% | $966 |
| 11 | Betty Yee | 6% | $3K |
| 12 | Ché Ahn | 5% | $15K |
| 13 | Ethan Agarwal | 5% | $2K |
| 14 | Sharifah Hardie | 4% | - |
| 15 | Jimmy Parker | 4% | - |
| 16 | Antonio Villaraigosa | 4% | $11K |
| 17 | Dylan Colbert | 3% | $13K |
| 18 | David Thelen | 3% | $750 |
| 19 | Daniel Mercuri | 3% | $8K |
| 20 | Ryan Tillman | 3% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Eric Swalwell at 64% probability, with $379K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $379K, with $32K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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