Pete Buttigieg leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Buttigieg | 82% | +21% | $20 |
| 2 | Ted Cruz | 78% | +27% | $596 |
| 3 | Andy Beshear | 78% | +28% | $20 |
| 4 | Gavin Newsom | 78% | +29% | $2K |
| 5 | Ron DeSantis | 77% | +30% | $40 |
| 6 | Rahm Emanuel | 76% | +31% | $60 |
| 7 | J.D. Vance | 76% | +31% | $95 |
| 8 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 70% | +43% | $389 |
| 9 | Josh Shapiro | 70% | +43% | $70 |
| 10 | Cory Booker | 68% | +48% | $40 |
| 11 | J.B. Pritzker | 67% | +49% | $45 |
| 12 | Kamala Harris | 66% | +53% | $431 |
| 13 | Marco Rubio | 64% | +56% | $60 |
| 14 | Mark Kelly | 62% | +60% | $60 |
| 15 | Wes Moore | 58% | +72% | $60 |
| 16 | Jon Ossoff | 57% | +75% | $233 |
| 17 | Josh Hawley | 40% | +153% | $291 |
| 18 | Rand Paul | 36% | +178% | $121 |
| 19 | Jared Polis | 34% | +194% | $40 |
| 20 | Raphael Warnock BEST VALUE | 32% | +208% | $40 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will announce Presidential run before 2028? will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Pete Buttigieg at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 05, 2026 at 07:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Buttigieg at 82% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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