The market strongly favors Elon Musk at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
Low Liquidity — trade with caution| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elon Musk | 98% | +2% | $2K |
| 2 | Jensen Huang | 98% | +2% | $1K |
| 3 | Tim Cook | 97% | +3% | $930 |
| 4 | Sundar Pichai | 94% | +6% | $2K |
| 5 | Satya Nadella | 94% | +7% | $2K |
| 6 | Sam Altman | 76% | +32% | $905 |
| 7 | John Ternus | 28% | +264% | $48 |
| 8 | Dario Amodei | 26% | +285% | $47 |
| 9 | Mark Zuckerberg | 13% | +669% | $471 |
| 10 | Alex Karp BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, during which Donald Trump is expected to host a state dinner for him at the White House. This market wil...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? will occur, with $10K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Elon Musk is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (104% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-08. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Elon Musk at 98% probability, with $10K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms