The market strongly favors Tulsi Gabbard at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $1.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulsi Gabbard | 100% | - | $101K |
| 2 | Pam Bondi | 100% | - | $365K |
| 3 | Dan Bongino | 100% | - | $5K |
| 4 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 100% | - | $7K |
| 5 | Karoline Leavitt | 100% | +0% | $77K |
| 6 | Russell Vought | 44% | +125% | $274 |
| 7 | David Sacks | 35% | +189% | $9K |
| 8 | Howard Lutnick | 32% | +212% | $93K |
| 9 | Dan Scavino | 29% | +244% | $137 |
| 10 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 29% | +245% | $87K |
| 11 | Kash Patel | 29% | +245% | $301K |
| 12 | Tom Homan | 27% | +270% | $172 |
| 13 | Pete Hegseth | 25% | +300% | $111K |
| 14 | Lee Zeldin | 24% | +317% | $31K |
| 15 | Susie Wiles | 24% | +326% | $55K |
| 16 | Kristi Noem | 22% | +361% | $96K |
| 17 | Markwayne Mullin | 16% | +506% | $2K |
| 18 | John Ratcliffe | 13% | +669% | $554 |
| 19 | Scott Bessent | 12% | +770% | $4K |
| 20 | Stephen Miller BEST VALUE | 10% | +852% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? will occur, with $1.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Tulsi Gabbard is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $33K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 12, 2026 at 21:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Tulsi Gabbard at 100% probability, with $1.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.4M, with $33K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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