The market strongly favors Karoline Leavitt at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $1.5M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karoline Leavitt | 100% | - | $77K |
| 2 | Tulsi Gabbard | 100% | - | $101K |
| 3 | Pam Bondi | 100% | - | $365K |
| 4 | Dan Bongino | 100% | - | $5K |
| 5 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 100% | - | $7K |
| 6 | Susie Wiles | 55% | +82% | $71K |
| 7 | Pete Hegseth | 46% | +120% | $165K |
| 8 | Russell Vought | 32% | +208% | $989 |
| 9 | Dan Scavino | 28% | +251% | $137 |
| 10 | Stephen Miller | 28% | +264% | $7K |
| 11 | Kristi Noem | 26% | +282% | $100K |
| 12 | Markwayne Mullin | 26% | +292% | $3K |
| 13 | Tom Homan | 22% | +344% | $643 |
| 14 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 20% | +388% | $94K |
| 15 | Kash Patel | 18% | +441% | $312K |
| 16 | Howard Lutnick | 18% | +471% | $102K |
| 17 | Marco Rubio | 16% | +525% | $28K |
| 18 | John Ratcliffe | 11% | +809% | $725 |
| 19 | Lee Zeldin | 10% | +852% | $35K |
| 20 | David Sacks BEST VALUE | 10% | +931% | $10K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? will occur, with $1.5M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Karoline Leavitt is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $22K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 04, 2026 at 19:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Karoline Leavitt at 100% probability, with $1.5M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.5M, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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