No clear favorite. Ryan Salame leads at just 16%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Salame | 16% | +506% | $36K |
| 2 | Matt Gaetz | 12% | +700% | $8K |
| 3 | Donald Brodie | 8% | +1076% | $19K |
| 4 | Joe Exotic | 8% | +1150% | $8K |
| 5 | Stefan Brodie | 8% | +1150% | $5K |
| 6 | Steve Bannon | 8% | +1158% | $13K |
| 7 | Keonne Rodriguez | 8% | +1233% | $20K |
| 8 | Daniel Penny | 7% | +1427% | $1K |
| 9 | Elon Musk | 5% | +1752% | $55K |
| 10 | Roger Ver | 5% | +1769% | $3K |
| 11 | Bob Menendez | 5% | +1823% | $390 |
| 12 | Diddy BEST VALUE | 5% | +1880% | $36K |
| 13 | Roger Stone | 5% | +1941% | $12K |
| 14 | Elizabeth Holmes | 5% | +1962% | $9K |
| 15 | Sam Bankman-Fried | 5% | +2005% | $157K |
| 16 | Ghislaine Maxwell | 4% | +2199% | $30K |
| 17 | Julian Assange | 4% | +2369% | $6K |
| 18 | Andrew Tate | 4% | +2432% | $2K |
| 19 | Derek Chauvin | 4% | +2432% | $30K |
| 20 | Young Thug | 4% | +2497% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Othe...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will Trump pardon before 2027? will occur, with $569K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Ryan Salame leads at only 16% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $15K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Ryan Salame at 16% probability, with $569K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $569K, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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