Donald Brodie leads at 64%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Brodie | 64% | +56% | - |
| 2 | Stefan Brodie | 55% | +82% | $16 |
| 3 | Daniel Penny | 54% | +85% | $14 |
| 4 | Roger Stone | 44% | +130% | - |
| 5 | Matt Gaetz | 42% | +135% | $37 |
| 6 | Bob Menendez | 40% | +148% | $157 |
| 7 | Keonne Rodriguez | 25% | +300% | $9K |
| 8 | Steve Bannon | 22% | +344% | $7K |
| 9 | Derek Chauvin | 21% | +367% | $19K |
| 10 | Ryan Salame | 14% | +641% | $15K |
| 11 | Sam Bankman-Fried | 10% | +947% | $76K |
| 12 | Ghislaine Maxwell | 10% | +953% | $15K |
| 13 | Julian Assange | 9% | +1005% | $2K |
| 14 | Diddy | 9% | +1063% | $8K |
| 15 | Eric Adams | 8% | +1150% | $129 |
| 16 | Martin Shkreli | 8% | +1150% | $26K |
| 17 | Roger Ver | 8% | +1233% | $463 |
| 18 | Joe Exotic | 8% | +1233% | $333 |
| 19 | Elizabeth Holmes | 8% | +1233% | $1K |
| 20 | Antoine Massey BEST VALUE | 7% | +1251% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Othe...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will Trump pardon before 2027? will occur, with $271K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Donald Brodie at 64%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 09:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Donald Brodie at 64% probability, with $271K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $271K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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