Mark Carney leads at 70%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Carney | 70% | +42% | $1K |
| 2 | Andy Burnham | 69% | +45% | $488 |
| 3 | Friedrich Merz | 68% | +46% | $40 |
| 4 | Mohammed bin Salman | 68% | +47% | $665 |
| 5 | Mark Rutte | 68% | +48% | $220 |
| 6 | Emmanuel Macron | 61% | +64% | $115 |
| 7 | Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 58% | +71% | $204 |
| 8 | Elon Musk | 56% | +79% | $317 |
| 9 | Vladimir Putin | 52% | +90% | $287 |
| 10 | Ursula von der Leyen | 42% | +141% | $40 |
| 11 | Ahmed al-Sharaa | 33% | +203% | $53K |
| 12 | Lula da Silva | 22% | +344% | $530 |
| 13 | Xi Jinping | 12% | +733% | $3K |
| 14 | Maria Corina Machado | 12% | +770% | $960 |
| 15 | Kim Jong Un BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | $444 |
| 16 | Miguel Díaz-Canel | 5% | +1983% | $574 |
| 17 | Reza Pahlavi | 4% | +2122% | $105 |
| 18 | Pope Leo XIV | 4% | +2253% | $289 |
| 19 | Yoon Suk Yeol | 2% | +5028% | $206 |
| 20 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 2% | +5028% | $471 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will Trump speak to by October 31? will occur, with $64K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Mark Carney at 70%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $64K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 01, 2026 at 13:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Mark Carney at 70% probability, with $64K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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