Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Ends Nov 04, 2026 · Volume: $69K · 24h: $75K · Updated Oct 11, 2026 at 21:45 UTC
PredScope Signal: Leaning

No Hormuz Agreement leads at 83%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.

🔥 Surging 24h volume is 109% of total — extremely active trading
# Outcome Probability If Right Volume
1 No Hormuz Agreement 83% +20% $12K
2 Hormuz Agreement; D Senate 10% +910% $32K
3 Hormuz Agreement; R Senate BEST VALUE 7% +1242% $25K
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Quick Math — $100 on No Hormuz Agreement
Buy Price
$0.83
If Right
+$20.34
Return
+20%
If wrong, you lose your $100 investment. Prediction markets carry risk.

This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2...

Market Analysis

This prediction market tracks whether Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? will occur, with $69K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.

Traders lean toward No Hormuz Agreement at 83%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.

Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $75K traded in the last 24 hours alone (109% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.

This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.

Total Volume
$69K
Liquidity
$1.1M

FAQ

What are the current odds for Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms??

As of Oct 11, 2026 at 21:45 UTC, the leading outcome is No Hormuz Agreement at 83% probability, with $69K in total trading volume on Polymarket.

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