This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | March 31 | 2% | $4.0M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31 at 2% probability, with $4.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $4.0M, with $40K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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