This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | 4% | $1.9M |
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As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? at 4% probability, with $1.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.9M, with $65K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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