No clear favorite. March 31, 2027 leads at just 10%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | March 31, 2027 | 10% | +953% | $420K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station wil...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Sumy by...? will occur, with $843K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — March 31, 2027 leads at only 10% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $11K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 31, 2026 at 16:35 UTC, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 10% probability, with $843K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $843K, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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