No clear favorite. December 31, 2027 leads at just 19%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2027 | 19% | +426% | $47K |
| 2 | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3179% | $656K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia invade another country by...? will occur, with $703K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31, 2027 leads at only 19% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $43K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 05, 2026 at 10:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 19% probability, with $703K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $703K, with $43K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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