No clear favorite. 20+ leads at just 28%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20+ | 28% | +264% | $38K |
| 2 | 40+ | 22% | +365% | $26K |
| 3 | 60+ | 14% | +641% | $42K |
| 4 | 80+ BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $30K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any...
This prediction market tracks whether Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? will occur, with $136K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — 20+ leads at only 28% across 4 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $46K traded in the last 24 hours alone (33% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is 20+ at 28% probability, with $136K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $136K, with $46K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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