20+ leads at 68%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20+ | 68% | +47% | $92K |
| 2 | 40+ | 26% | +285% | $105K |
| 3 | 60+ | 14% | +614% | $61K |
| 4 | 80+ BEST VALUE | 10% | +900% | $157K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between mark...
As of May 14, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 20+ at 68% probability, with $416K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $416K, with $43K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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