This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 10% | $307K |
| 2 | April 30 | 1% | $216K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 10% probability, with $4.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $4.9M, with $122K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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