The market strongly favors June 2 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 2 | 100% | - | $29K |
| 2 | June 3 | 100% | - | $48K |
| 3 | June 4 | 100% | - | $112K |
| 4 | June 5 | 100% | - | $34K |
| 5 | June 6 | 100% | - | $59K |
| 6 | June 8 | 100% | - | $30K |
| 7 | June 9 | 100% | - | $30K |
| 8 | June 11 | 95% | +6% | $4K |
| 9 | June 18 | 94% | +6% | $2K |
| 10 | June 12 | 94% | +7% | $4K |
| 11 | June 10 | 94% | +7% | $13K |
| 12 | June 28 | 93% | +8% | $768 |
| 13 | June 17 | 93% | +8% | $813 |
| 14 | June 19 | 93% | +8% | $232 |
| 15 | June 13 | 92% | +8% | $2K |
| 16 | June 15 | 92% | +8% | $3K |
| 17 | June 25 | 92% | +8% | $146 |
| 18 | June 26 BEST VALUE | 92% | +9% | $207 |
| 19 | June 14 | 92% | +9% | $1K |
| 20 | June 16 | 92% | +9% | $285 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative mann...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? will occur, with $450K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: June 2 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $25K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is June 2 at 100% probability, with $450K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $450K, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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