The market strongly favors 280M at 91%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 280M | 91% | +10% | $15K |
| 2 | 270M | 41% | +144% | $1K |
| 3 | 260M BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $1K |
| 4 | 250M | 3% | +3746% | $1K |
| 5 | 200M | 1% | +16567% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to t...
This prediction market tracks whether Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25? will occur, with $20K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: 280M is priced at 91%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (72% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-07. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 01, 2026 at 18:36 UTC, the leading outcome is 280M at 91% probability, with $20K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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