The market strongly favors David Crowley (D) at 87%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Crowley (D) | 87% | +15% | $327K |
| 2 | Tom Tiffany (R) | 14% | +641% | $281K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the p...
This prediction market tracks whether Wisconsin Governor Election Winner will occur, with $608K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: David Crowley (D) is priced at 87%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $14K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 23:45 UTC, the leading outcome is David Crowley (D) at 87% probability, with $608K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $608K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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