This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5+ days | 100% | $185K |
| 2 | 3+ days | 100% | $69K |
| 3 | 7+ days | 100% | $95K |
| 4 | 10+ days | 100% | $222K |
| 5 | 14+ days | 100% | $252K |
| 6 | 30+ days | 100% | - |
| 7 | 21+ days | 100% | - |
| 8 | 40+ days | 100% | - |
| 9 | 44+ days | 100% | $19K |
| 10 | 48+ days | 99% | $37K |
| 11 | 52+ days | 92% | $17K |
| 12 | 60+ days | 82% | $241K |
| 13 | 70+ days | 51% | $6K |
| 14 | 80+ days | 33% | $7K |
| 15 | 90+ days | 28% | $10K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 5+ days at 100% probability, with $1.2M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.2M, with $32K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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