No clear favorite. 1 leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 36% | +174% | $5K |
| 2 | 2 | 32% | +208% | $4K |
| 3 | 0 | 18% | +441% | $4K |
| 4 | 3+ BEST VALUE | 14% | +641% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct United States federal government shutdowns due to a lapse in appropriations that go into effect between market creation and December 31, 20...
This prediction market tracks whether How many government shutdowns by December 31, 2027? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — 1 leads at only 36% across 4 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 05, 2026 at 20:05 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 at 36% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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