No clear favorite. Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? leads at just 14%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | 14% | +641% | $21K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting th...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? will occur, with $21K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? leads at only 14% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 11, 2026 at 01:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? at 14% probability, with $21K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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