The market strongly favors December 31, 2026 at 87%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 87% | +15% | $2K |
| 2 | October 31, 2026 | 71% | +41% | $1K |
| 3 | September 30, 2026 | 58% | +71% | $7K |
| 4 | September 24, 2026 BEST VALUE | 26% | +285% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying ano...
This prediction market tracks whether Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? will occur, with $16K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: December 31, 2026 is priced at 87%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 23, 2026 at 17:35 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 87% probability, with $16K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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