This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 68% | $623K |
| 2 | April 30 | 38% | $1.4M |
| 3 | April 15 | 20% | $650K |
| 4 | April 7 | 8% | $226K |
| 5 | March 31 | 2% | $4.8M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 68% probability, with $7.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $7.9M, with $325K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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