This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5–15% | 98% | $267K |
| 2 | 15–25% | 2% | $539K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, the leading outcome is 5–15% at 98% probability, with $1.2M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.2M, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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